Saturday, August 1, 2020

Good. Bad. Ugly. Q2 Earnings Season

Q2 earnings, the moment we were all dreading, is here.  Thankfully, it is better than expected, but worse than hoped.  Let's dive into my portfolio, shall we?

The Good

This is a hard time to predict earnings, and many corrections have been made for pretty much all companies.  The recession stocks actually had to correct up!  It appears everyone is learning how to cook their own meals.  Probably good for some people to eat healthier, bad for some people because of the waistline (snacking habits - something I'm struggling with - fasting helps!).  Here're the good stocks that have reported good earnings already (most have gone up $10+ per share the past month):
FAST - their medical side (I didn't even know they had one) has been doing very well
JNJ - Rose and dropped, but ended up higher than starting the month
ABT - Just keeps going, and going, and going...up
PG - Another winner that increased dramatically
WSO - Rose over 16% on earnings... WOW
KMB 
XEL
MA
SO
ADM
WPC -  So glad I bought this stock after trading in NNN
APD
QCOM - Another exploder!  Up 17% on earnings news and a deal with Huawei.  New high!

The Bad
So that was a good list above, but we were expecting everyone to report bad this quarter.  It was inevitable with the shutdown earlier and the slow restart of the economy.  So here are the expected bad boys of my portfolio:
MCD - One cannot thrive on Drive-Thru alone.  200 stores closed in Japan.  They did maintain their dividend, and this is the best of their sector, they will pull through.
ORI - They beat their earnings, but the share price is flat and still far below what I paid for it.  I'm leveraging a little here and there, but I need some sign from the insurance sector that they are ok.
T - AT&T has the cash flow, but Time/Warner is suffering from the lack of entertainment industry.  The dividend is safe, but the share price is still terrible.  Another one I'm nibbling at.
ABBV -  I have been buying on the way down, the yield is too good to pass up, but I am a little surprised at this one.  I expected a medical stock to do better in this environment.

The Ugly
OKE - They maintained their dividend, but this one is not pretty.  While I expect them to cut the dividend, I'm looking for a boost to get out.  But where would I go?  They are the best company out there for natural gas (you may think that's debatable) with a dividend.  If I get out of OKE, I would need to go into another sector completely.  Although my portfolio on a whole is up, I've lost about half my investment in OKE.  The only good news is that this has to be the worst quarter and we can only go up from here, right?  Right?
CVX - Wow this one was way worse than I expected.  Chevron is the king of oil in this market, and they still were hemorrhaging on earnings EPS of -$1.59 misses by $0.70  - Wow!  They also took on some debt to take advantage of this crisis by an acquisition of a smaller company, so they are confident.  I'm just glad I don't own Exxon.

If these two Ugly guys cut their dividend, I may stay with them, going against my rule of running when a dividend is cut.  I have nowhere to go in this sector, they are the best you can get.  However, if they *eliminate* their dividend, I will send them packing and just go to another sector (or maybe load into the other one).  Apparently energy will be too volatile for me in that case.  I need dependable income, and this crisis has separated the men from the boys.

Still a third of my portfolio needs to report, mostly utilities and consumer discretionary stocks.

There weren't a lot of buying opportunities this month, because the good got expensive, and the ugly scared me away, but I did some buying mostly on the market drop yesterday.  Good news is my low month dividends increased by about 60% after all the buying a few months ago.

Dividend Increases & Special Payouts
None, but no cuts either.

July Purchases:
IP - 12
CVX - 7
O - 4
ABBV - 2
SO - 2
ORI - 10
WPC - 2


Looking ahead, the rest of my stocks need to report out in August, following worst GDP on record.  We can only go up from here, right?  I expect that so close to the election, Trump will do his best to shock the economy and to stock market back into action.  Stay tuned.

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