Friday, September 29, 2017

The Best September in Stock Market History?

Due to September being historically the worst month for stocks, I decided to pull in my feelers and tend to my own stocks.  Of course, the market being ever unpredictable, it was the best month *ever* for September stocks.  I guess it could have been predicted thanks to Trump and his corporate tax talk, but I decided to tend my own house anyway. 

I bought more MO earlier this month, and Monday, I averaged down Hormel.  The Hormel purchase didn't do much for my dividends, but the stock was fluctuating at the -10% loss level, which is a "Buy me, I'm on sale 10% off!" sign for me.  Hormel has GREAT fundamentals.  It is a very conservative company in many ways, including their dividends, and I have long been wondering why it didn't bounce up while I was waiting to buy it at such a great price.  Reasons I bought it:
  1. On sale at 9-10% off from my last HRL purchase.
  2. Hovering at its 52 week low (like many consumer staples in this market) .
  3. 51 years of increasing dividends.  Why they are 0.68 a share I have no clue.
  4. Beta of 0.6
  5. P/E of 19.63
  6. Increased yield since I last bought it (weak, Midlife!)
  7. Almost no debt.
  8. Payout ratio of 40%.  This is a big one for me.
  9. $640 million cash on hand (plus new acquisitions)
  10. Lots of free cash flow 
Since I bought it, it has gone up so it is under the 5% mark after averaging down.  MO has also recovered nicely.

Stocks that worry me:  My other two staples that are also underwater, General Mills (GIS) and Phillip Morris (PM) have some good reasons to be purchased, but one thing is holding me back.  Call me cautious, but payout ratios of 120% and 93% respectively, and GIS's debt (PM has some too) give me pause.  While I expect PM to recover at some point, I already have too much invested in tobacco.  Of my 3 bottom stocks, Old Republic Insurance (ORI) has better fundamentals than these staples.  If anything, I may increase my holdings in ORI for my next purchase in 9 days.  Otherwise, I will be looking outside at staples and possibly oil or tech for my next investment.  I don't know if oil is a good investment now that it bounced back quite a bit - my Chevron stock is already at the +10% above water mark!

Anyways my updated technical data should be up soon after writing this.  Here's to looking toward October and my goal of $1k in annual divs per year!


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