Saturday, July 2, 2022

Nice pullback, but for dumb reasons

Q1 earnings caused quite a ruckus in the market, and Q2 earnings might as well.  Thankfully, dividend
stocks, especially consumer staples, don't get hit as hard.  Regardless, my (limited selection) 401k has lost a lot, and if I had that money in hand, it would not be the case.  My net worth has been about the same as November of last year!  And that is with me adding money to my account, and my house going up up up, and me adding just enough to my 401k for my work to match.  

The market is pretty boring these days, and a debbie downer.  I appreciate the great yields, but the depressed market is quite a change from the Trump economy market.  I know Biden has been quoted as saying the stock market is for rich people, but that is such a small view.  It is for companies that employ all classes, and holds retirement for all classes as well.  This drop may cause some senior citizens to come out of retirement to work, and might require me to delay my retirement.  I have been holding cash for the most part, with some big purchases here and there to take advantage of good yields from quality companies.

The feds need to raise rates.  If you didn't get a loan or mortgage with a low rate, you missed the boat.  It's only going up from here.  A lot of this is oil related, and we need to get back to using our own oil, at least to keep strong during this depressed economy.  We should get a bounce back as money slowly re-enters the market, but if Q2 is as bad as Q1, we might have another drop.  Companies are a lot more agile now than back in the Sears or Marshall Fields days.  They may be able to take care of the increased price of oil, and in turn, everything else.

SCOTUS rulings should be highly ineffective on the market.  One possible contradiction to this was the giving of Roe vs Wade to the states (and I wish more things were given to the states).  That kind of news in this economy is great as we may be able to increase workers, reason to work, and also more consumers into the economy, the market reflected that following the news.  Considering the severe drop in family sizes in the U.S., we definitely need a larger work population.


Not much else to say.  We finished remodeling our last room in our condo for retirement - and just need to buy some patio furniture with a few minor changes here and there to the inside.  It is very exciting to be close to finished with that goal.  Our first child is going off to university with one year+ of credits under her belt, and our son is going to college full time while in high school to reduce his tuition costs as well.  I have been living my pre-retirement in my hot tub, and playing games with my friends.

    Dividend Increases & Special Payouts Apr/May/June


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    Monday, April 4, 2022

    Inflation, Ukraine, Home Prices

     Interest rates are rising - and that means people will be borrowing less which should boost the value of
    the dollar - except the Fed is taking its sweet time to raise them.  I'm not sure why - but as long as they drag their feet, the housing market should get a last minute shot in the arm as people scramble to take advantage of such low rates.  I am not too worried about the value of my home, I live in one of the hottest parts of the country right now.  So even if the market cools or busts, I should see little if any change.  It is nice to see the price of my home almost double, as it has been the fastest growing asset in my net worth portfolio.  The nice thing is that
    it will continue to appreciate until such time as I decide I am tired of owning and wish to rent and let someone else deal with all the problems.  I have often heard that you don't own a house, it owns you, and that has been true of my last two homes, but the current Condo I live in, I don't feel that way.  While we are currently remodeling the last room in our house, I have not had to make any repairs to the home.  I may keep it - but if I want to avoid state income taxes from dividends I may not.  

    I received a larger than average raise to compensate for inflation this year.  Sadly, it was still behind the current rate of inflation (no surprise there).  I now see why people job hop to different companies.  It gets more expensive each year to keep your job, as the employer believes you will have some kind of loyalty and take the abuse.  Thankfully, I have about 2.5 years left before I am eligible to retire.  If the economy improves, I should be able to follow through with that.  Drop my pension and 401k into an IRA, then drop that into a Roth, pay an obscene amount of taxes, then never pay federal income tax again.  My taxable brokerage account is getting very close to the 20k bracket for married filing jointly, so by the time I do all this, I should be at 16-18k income on the taxable account, and everything else coming from my Roth.  This current div meter does include some income from Roth, HSA, and my wife's IRA, but not a huge percentage.

    From an economic perspective, the Ukraine debacle is itching for "peace to break out".  I have been buying quite a bit as my portfolio is recovering from the last several months of losses.  In all situations there is a place to make money, and one stock that has been taking off like a rocket is Archer Daniels (ADM).  Who would have thought the Ukraine was the breadbasket of the world?  Stateside farm value has exploded due to lack of farming in Ukraine, and ADM certainly is breaking out.  My son owns LAND which is a farm REIT, and it has blown up as well.  They will probably settle down after "peace breaks out".  The only problem I have with the Ukraine situation is Putin's lack of success.  It feels like a feint on purpose, or a smoke and mirrors tactic for China or itself.  I hope there are no surprises later.


    Inflation definitely puts a crimp into my retirement plans.  It also tips me toward going abroad.  After all, most of the world's grain goes through the Panama Canal, and Panama is in my top 5 countries to retire to.  I expect the dollar to go a lot further there, as we are feeling the squeeze on fuel and consumer staples.  We will see how this goes - I don't have much keeping me around at this point that I can't do online.  That includes socially as well.


    Dividend Increases & Special Payouts Feb/Mar

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    Thursday, February 10, 2022

    Late, but was waiting for milestone

     Finally!

    This morning, WSO aka Watsco aka HVAC Supplier, raised their dividend 13%, which pushed my dividends over to $1001 per month (average).  $12k a year.  I am proud to reveal my divmeter's new milestone:

    It took under 5 years... 

    I'm halfway to "livable" (green) income.  Granted, some (but not many) of these divvies are in a Roth and HSA.  None of them are in my 401(k), since I'm not allowed by Fidelity to own dividend paying stocks.  I will need to hit 40k if I want to maintain my current lifestyle, after kids have left.

    I'm also late because I was on a vacation - took a cruise at the height of Omicron.  I won't do that again - wasn't worth the discounted price!  I also spent most of January doing taxes and making money decisions.  It appears I will be opening a Traditional IRA for my wife, so I can pay her instead of the government.  It will also help us simulate having one at some point.  It remains to be seen if we will be 72(t) it when retirement rolls around in a few years.  I have been giving a lot of thought to the backdoor Roth, but not too much thought, the Democrats may yet be able to eliminate it, but I hope not!  My co-worker is retiring in a few months and hopes to take advantage of it.  I will be watching (the end of) his career with great interest.

    As far as my daughter's education, one of the scholarships we were banking on fizzled out - they ended it last year, and announced it this February.  It looks like we will need to fund her education and she will pay us back interest free.  Almost every scholarship is "need based" which exposes the ridiculousness of the price gouging that takes place, colleges hoping students get free money from the government or go into debt paying for their school.  I consider it an investment in the end, she can pay the old man instead of the loan sharks.

    With 2+ months of markets flat or retreating, it is clear we have a president who isn't concerned about the stock market status.  With inflation on the rise, Fed raising rates, and supply chain shortages, I'm expecting more of the same going forward.  It will be harder to find a few gems here and there.  We can wait for Putin to invade Ukraine, and maybe even China invading Taiwan to get a few bargains, but other than that, I don't see any motivation from the White House to keep this Bull market of the past 5 years going.  

    Dividend Increases & Special Payouts Dec/Jan

    • December/January Purchases/Sales:
      • Sold OHI-100 to tax harvest to Buy QYLD - 128
      • O - 10
      • QYLD - 49
      • JNJ - 2
      • ORI - 1
      • SO - 9
      • XEL - 7
      • WTRG - 1



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